Response of the Relative Wheat Acreage (Triticum aestivum) to Changes in Relative Wheat Prices in Bolivia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.71068/SMJ00101Keywords:
pricing policy, relative hectareage wheat to corn, impulse response function, relative price wheat to corn, Autoregressive VectorsAbstract
Despite a favorable princing policy for wheat, the relative wheat-to-corn acreage remained below one throughout the analysis period, indicating that producers prefer corn. It is important to analyze how de relative wheat-to-corn acreage responds to the pricing policies implemented in Bolivia. To evaluate this response, the impulse response function of a VAR model was estimated. The results show that, in Santa Cruz, in the short and long term, a one-standard-error increase in relative wheat-to-corn prices has no effect; in the medium term, is has an eventually positive affect, that converges to a steady state. In contrast, in the western region, in the short term, a one-standard-error increase in relative wheat-to-corn prices has no effect on the response of relative wheat-to-corn acreage; an eventually positive effect in the medium term; and neutral in the long term, which also converges to a steady state. Therefore, a pro-wheat princig policy is insufficient to increase relative wheat-to-corn acreage and generate structural changes in the national wheat supply. Our model will serve as a starting point for developing more sophisticated models to analyze the response of wheat supply to variations in the producer price of the grain in Bolivia
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